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Education · Fundamental Analysis · Chapter 2 of 3

Reading news like an analyst

6 min02 / 03

The market doesn't react to news itself, it reacts to surprise. What matters is the gap between what was expected (consensus) and what was actually released (actual).

Three numbers to watch

Every economic release has three numbers: previous (last period), consensus (market forecast), and actual (the release). The gap between actual and consensus is what moves price.

News releaseQuietReactionAftermath
Price sits quietly before the release, reacts sharply once actual vs consensus is known, and is usually followed by continued volatility.

If actual is much better than consensus, it's a positive surprise and typically strengthens the related currency. If worse, the currency tends to weaken. A number in line with consensus usually produces little movement.

High vs low impact

Not all news carries equal weight. Economic calendars typically label events 'high', 'medium', or 'low' impact. As a beginner, focus on the high-impact ones first, they're the ones that most often spark big moves.

In the minutes before and after a high-impact release, spreads often widen and slippage increases. When in doubt, it's safer to wait for the market to settle before executing.

Buy the rumor, sell the news

The market moves on expectations first. When news finally releases, even if it matches consensus, traders who entered early often take profits, and price can move opposite to 'logic'. This is known as buy the rumor, sell the news.

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