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Education · Fundamental Analysis · Chapter 3 of 3

Key economic indicators

6 min03 / 03

You don't need to watch every economic indicator. A handful give the strongest signals for forex and commodities, focus on the high-impact ones first.

Interest RateHIGHCPI (Inflation)HIGHNon-Farm PayrollsHIGHGDPMEDPMIMEDTrade BalanceLOW
High-impact indicators usually show up on the economic calendar with red flags or three-star markers.

Central bank interest rates

The most important release. Announcements like the Fed's FOMC, ECB, or Bank Indonesia (BI Rate) can set the direction of a currency for weeks. Watch not just the current number, but also the forward guidance, signals about future policy.

Inflation (CPI)

The Consumer Price Index measures how much prices have risen. High CPI typically raises expectations of rate hikes, strengthening the currency. Low CPI does the opposite.

Employment data

In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is released on the first Friday of every month and is one of the most volatile events. Strong jobs numbers reflect a healthy economy and support USD strength.

GDP & PMI

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures economic growth, usually released quarterly. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is released monthly and often used as a leading indicator: above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction.

Start with one currency or pair you focus on. Learn its economic calendar and build intuition there before expanding to other markets.

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